It Takes a Lot of Luck – Issue 119



One of the things that people struggle to understand is how poker can maintain an almost constant curve over time, even though we see ridiculous variance in tournaments at the tables. God bless us, bad beats are everywhere…

The truth is, our brains have a hard time making sense of these two things because they are a series of short-term events bundled together. Scenes that frustrate us directly affect our emotions, which impairs the brain’s ability to rationally interpret facts.

Look, the way math behaves is weird. If we think that our chances of winning a higher pair and a lower pair 3 times in a row (80%/20%) are the same as our chances of winning a coin toss (50%/50%), we can think that it is easier to imagine our How much luck do you need to win the game? I see people talking about how you have to win multiple negative situations to win the game, but the gap is much bigger. Winning one after the other only under the most favorable circumstances will make us very happy even in the short term. We win more games in a given game, take advantage of our post-flop play, and ultimately achieve our ultimate goal: victory.

Over time, this is how math works perfectly. No wonder the short-term charts are a real whirlwind, while the long-term charts depict exactly how far the player is ahead of the opponent.

This understanding also helps a lot when trading with bad beats, as it allows you to view each as an investment that will bring the long-awaited thrill. Just like a bank, you accumulate credit with every bad beat. When your bankroll reaches a certain amount, you will always win the game. If you haven’t accumulated a lot of bad rhythms, that’s a sign the nails aren’t piling up. Think about it and see how your relationship with the game will align, and you will naturally improve in the way you play the game and your relationship with the differences in the game – which is quite high in the short term.

If you want to do an interesting exercise, you can view the history of the hands you have played in winning tournaments. Count how many times you have won and lost preflop all-in. You will clearly see that the scales are uneven. To compensate for this, you have to lose a lot of all-ins in other tournaments. This is what makes math perfect in the long run.

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